Volume 1, Issue 1, January 2022
Articles

Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports, and GDP during COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

PDF
  • Arulmurugan Velayutham,
  • Vairasigamani Pavadaisamy,
  • Prabhakar Nandru
Arulmurugan Velayutham
Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce, Pondicherry University, Karaikal Campus
Vairasigamani Pavadaisamy
Research Scholar (Full-Time), Department of Commerce, Pondicherry University, Karaikal Campus
Prabhakar Nandru
ICSSR Post-Doctoral Fellow, Department of Management, Pondicherry University, Karaikal Campus
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59176/kjms.v1i1.2199

Published 2022-04-01

Keywords

  • Agricultural Products, COVID-19 Pandemic, Foreign Trade, Indian Economy, Non-Agricultural Products.

How to Cite

Velayutham, A., Pavadaisamy, V., & Nandru, P. (2022). Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports, and GDP during COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from an Emerging Economy. Kristu Jayanti Journal of Management Sciences (KJMS), 1(1), 18–39. https://doi.org/10.59176/kjms.v1i1.2199
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

Abstract

The unexpected COVID-19 global pandemic has posed new challenges for global trade. Consequently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the entire world has stagnated its economic growth; this is reflected in India's growth. The growth is contributed by effective foreign trade and its policies. The COVID-19 pandemic has opened up a new avenue to understand the contribution of trade to economic growth. The current study is aimed to understand the performance of Indian foreign trade in the light of select agricultural and non – agricultural products in COVID-19 pandemic. The study results confirm that exports and imports have drastically declined due to India's global pandemic and economic lockdown. Somehow it is recovered gradually but not as it was before the pandemic. The study also found that bidirectional causality has existed between India's GDP and imports during the COVID-19 pandemic.

PDF

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

  1. Agrawal, S., et al. (2020). Effect of COVID-19 on the Indian Economy and Supply Chain , Preprints, http://dx.doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0148.v1.
  2. Ajmi, A. N., et al. (2015). Causality between exports and economic growth in South Africa: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests. The Journal of developing areas,163-181.
  3. Alkhateeb, T. T., et al. (2016). The relationship between exports and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Asian Social Science, 12(4),117-124.
  4. Andrews, A. P. (2015). Exports, imports, and economic growth in liberia: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis., Journal of Management Policy & Practice, 16(3),95-109.
  5. Bakari, S., and Mabrouki, M. (2016). The relationship among exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey" Munich Personal RePEc Archive,1-11. Retrieved fromhttps://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76044/1/MPRA_paper_76044.pdf.
  6. Bakari, S., and Mabrouki, M. (2017). Impact of exports and imports on economic growth: new evidence from Panama. Journal of Smart Economic Growth,2(1),67-79. 7.
  7. Banerjee, P. (2020). Enhancing engineering exports from India: the case of electrical machinery. COVID-19 Challenges for the Indian Economy. Trade and Foreign Policy Effects", EPIC INDIA. 173-178.
  8. Chabossou, A. F., et al. (2021). COVID-19 and the performance of exporting companies in Benin. The European Journal of Development Research, 1-15.
  9. Dhinakaran, D. D. P., and Kesavan, N. (2020), "Exports and imports stagnation in india during covid-19-a review", GIS Business,15(4),1158-1177.
  10. Engineering Export Promotion Council of India, (2020), "COVID-19 Challenges for the Indian Economy", Retrieved from: https://www.eepcindia.org/
  11. Economic survey of India, (2020). PRS Legislative Research Institute for Policy Research Studies. Retrieved from: https://lamp.prsindia.org/report-summaries/economic-survey-2020-21
  12. Gerni, (2013). Relationship between import-led exports and economic growth: the experience of turkey (1980-2008). Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi,2(2),15-36.
  13. Gopalakrishnan, A., and Mahalakshmi, A. (2018). A study on impact of foreign trade in india in the post liberalisation era. Economics,6(3), 1-7.
  14. Kumar, A., et al. (2021). Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies. Journal of policy modeling, 43(1),76-94.
  15. Maliszewska, M., et al. (2020).The potential impact of COVID-19 on GDP and trade: A preliminary assessment. Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 9211, World Bank: : Washington, DC, USA.
  16. McKee, M., and Stuckler, D. (2020). If the world fails to protect the economy, COVID-19 will damage health not just now but also in the future. Nature Medicine,26(5),640-642.
  17. Mohsen, A. S. (2015). Effects of exports and imports on the economic growth of Syria. Euro-Asian Journal of Economics and Finance, 1(4),253-261.
  18. Nicola M,.et al. (2020). The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. International Journal of Surgery, 78,185-193.
  19. Parth, K. (2020). The economic cost of COVID-19: a potential pandemic impact on Indian economy. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology,29(6)2182-2192.
  20. Pistoresi, B., and Rinaldi, A. (2012). Exports, imports and growth: New evidence on Italy: 1863–2004. Explorations in economic history,49(2),241-254.
  21. Rababah, A., et al. (2020). Analyzing the effects of COVID‐19 pandemic on the financial performance of Chinese listed companies. Journal of Public Affairs,20(4),1-6.
  22. Rahman, M. M., and Shahbaz, M. (2013). Do imports and foreign capital inflows lead economic growth? Cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan. South Asia Economic Journal,14(1),59-81.
  23. Rai, S. K., and Jhala, P. (2015). Impact of exports and imports on India's growth rate: An empirical enquiry. Pacific business review international,8(6),53-58.
  24. Rakshit, B., and Basistha, D. (2020).Can India stay immune enough to combat COVID-19 pandemic? An economic query. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(4),1-7.
  25. Rentala, S., and Nandru, P. (2019), Export performance of India and its impact on GDP during post economic-reforms period", SMS Journal of Entrepreneurship & Innovation, 5(2), 57-66.
  26. Saaed, A. A. J., and Hussain, M. A. (2015). Impact of exports and imports on economic growth: Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Emerging Trends in Educational Research and Policy Studies, 6(1), 13-21.
  27. Sahoo, P., and Ashwani. (2020). COVID-19 and Indian economy: Impact on growth, manufacturing, trade and MSME sector. Global Business Review,21(5),1159-1183.
  28. Sani Hassan Hussaini, B. A. (2015), "Exports,imports and economic growth in India. An empirical analysis. Global Business ResearchJournals.Proceedings of the International Symposium on Emerging Trends in Social Science Research (IS15 Chennai Symposium) ISBN: 978-1-941505-23-6 Chennai-India, 3-5, Paper ID: C542.
  29. Singarayar, B., and Rani, S. (2020). The Effect of Covid-19 on the Indian Economy. Mukt Shabd Journal,9(9),1-8.
  30. Sutradhar, P., et al. (2020). An impact analysis of covid-19 pandemic crisis on Indian foreign trade. International Journal of Management (IJM),11(7),753-763.
  31. Taghavi, M., et al. (2012). Study on the impact of export and import on economic growth in Iran. Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(12),12787-12794.
  32. Uğur, A. (2008). Import and economic growth in Turkey: Evidence from multivariate VAR analysis. Journal of economics and Business,11(2),54-75.
  33. Veeramani, S., and Anam. (2021).COVID-19 Impact on Exports of Services: Opportunities, Challenges and Suggestions for India. FIIB Business Review,1-12.
  34. Virmani, A., and Bhasin, K. (2020). Growth Implications of Pandemic: Indian Economy", Working paper No 2/2020, Foundation for Economic Growth and Welfare, Availablefrom:https://egrowfoundation.org/research/growth-implications-of-pandemic-indian-economy/
  35. WTO (2020), "Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy", Retrieved from: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm
  36. Yüksel, S., and Zengin, S. (2016). Causality relationship between import, export and growth rate in developing countries. International Journal of Commerce and Finance, 2(1), 147-156.

Similar Articles

1 2 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.